Predictions: 10 of 13 Winners, 4 Perfect, 680 Points
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Tied for 1541st
Of the 11 Brazilians I picked I'd say I'm pretty confident in 7 of them.
Little confidence in either WMMA fight. Ruffy unproven and definitely taking a leap of faith with Brener. The rest of them I like a lot. Of the two I didnt pick, I'm pretty confident in Klose but could see Martinez losing for sure.
Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 3 Perfect, 505 Points
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Tied for 4180th
I'm agnostic over who gets put to sleep in Silva v Klose but I think someone will and I think it will be mostly luck as they both swing in the pocket. I did bet and pick Silva though because of the line.
Predictions: 10 of 13 Winners, 7 Perfect, 775 Points
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351st Place
Pantoja vs. Erceg Steve Erceg, DEC Steve Erceg +160 1 unit
Martinez vs. Aldo Jonathan Martinez, DEC Jose Aldo +122 1 unit
Smith vs. Petrino Vitor Petrino, TKO, R1 Vitor Petrino wins via DEC +240 .5 units Anthony Smith wins via DEC +1100 .25 units Anthony Smith wins via SUB +1400 .25 units
Brito vs. Shore Joanderson Brito, TKO, R2 Joanderson Brito wins in R1 +275 .5 units Joanderson Brito wins in R2 +450 .5 units Jack Shore wins via DEC +350 .5 units
Silva vs. Klose Drakkar Klose, DEC Joaquim Silva +140 2.5 units Joaquim Silva wins via KO/TKO +430 .5 units
Ruffy vs. Mullarkey Mauricio Ruffy, TKO, R1 Mauricio Ruffy -170 2 units (Bovada) Mauricio Ruffy wins via decision +600 .5 units (BetOnline)
Barbosa vs. Kareckaite Dione Barbosa, SUB, R1 Dione Barbosa wins inside the distance +200 .25 units Dione Barbosa wins in R1 +500 .25 units
Predictions: 11 of 13 Winners, 4 Perfect, 705 Points
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Tied for 1080th
Pantoja vs. Erceg Alexandre Pantoja, SUB, R2 Back after a small break. Really like this card so thought I'd quickly explain my picks. I really like Pantoja here. Erceg is good but there are levels to grappling. Watch the Costa fight, Erceg gets taken down and controlled for a while on the ground. If that was Pantoja it ends differently. Also I have a sneaky suspicion that Erceg is chinny, and he is very hittable.
Martinez vs. Aldo José Aldo, DEC Aldo in Rio? I know who I am picking. Also Aldo is better almost everywhere, except maybe cardio. Better boxing, better grappling, better head movement and defense, and better kicks in my opinion too. If Martinez can't get his leg kicks off he is in trouble, and Aldo is one of the best checkers of leg kicks out there.
Smith vs. Petrino Vitor Petrino, DEC I think Smith is tough, and Petrino still has a lot to prove, but I really think Smith is washed.
Pereira vs. Potieria Michel Pereira, TKO, R2 I see a lot of cappers picking Potieria as an underdog and I don't understand it. Are we forgetting how bad he is? I think Pereira manages the range and destroys him from the outside.
Craig vs. Borralho Caio Borralho, TKO, R3 Can't see how Caio loses this. Craig is not submitting Caio. No chance. And while Caio has no finishing instinct at all I do think he gets this done.
Brito vs. Shore Joanderson Brito, TKO, R2 This is a really good fight, but I think Shore is in the wrong weight class and I think Brito is too big and strong for him
Kowalkiewicz vs. Lucindo Iasmin Lucindo, DEC Iasmin should win this even though I like Karolina on the feet, she will get taken down and Iasmin should control her
Brener vs. Orolbai Myktybek Orolbai, SUB, R3 Orolbai should cruise here. I did not see the video myself but I heard Brener looked horrible on the weight cut. Which is why I am picking the submission, or else I would have gone decision. There is a lot of hype on Brener, but remember he was losing both his previous fights till he pulled out a comeback from nowhere. I don't think Orolbai will give him that chance. Takedowns and rinse and repeat.
Silva vs. Klose Drakkar Klose, TKO, R3 This should be fun. But I think Silva is chinny and Klose should be better everywhere. If it ends in a brawl though anyone could win.
Ruffy vs. Mullarkey Mauricio Ruffy, TKO, R2 Mullarkey's chin is gone. And Ruffy as a counter striker will like Mullarkey's forward pressure. Also has good takedown defense.
Barbosa vs. Kareckaite Dione Barbosa, SUB, R2 Interesting fight. While I don't really like Barbosa's takedowns I think she will get it down at some point and then it is real trouble for Ernesta. And Ernesta is not "Heavy handed". She just has really good cardio and volume. I can see Barbosa not being deterred by the shots and walking forward into the clinch.
Bonfim vs. Pichel Ismael Bonfim, DEC Vinc is tough but this is the real Bonfim. I think his boxing and speed will be too much.
Costa vs. Borjas Kevin Borjas, TKO, R2 I do like Costa as a fighter but I see 2 problems. I think he is chinny. And Borjas has some really nice combos, he reminds me of Daniel Marcos. Also think he is faster and has the opportunity to land leg kicks on Costa. Still if this goes to decision in Brazil, especially as the first fight on the card it could be very dodgy
Predictions: 10 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 555 Points
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Tied for 3457th
Pantoja vs. Erceg Alexandre Pantoja, SUB, R2 Pantoja will come out strong and Erceg will be in a new environment, main event in Brazil against a Brazilian. He seemed very calm all week, which could be a good thing, but I think there has to be some kind of fire under you to make you perform your best. Pantoja has been here before against more skilled guys and got the finish. Pantoja by submission, if I'm picking a round it'll be the 2nd or 3rd. If it goes into later rounds Pantoja will slow down. Not sure about Erceg in 5 rounders.
Martinez vs. Aldo Jonathan Martinez, DEC Jose is a legend but Martinez has looked solid as a technical striker. Jose has been active in boxing but I feel that training may have taken away from an MMA focus. That may be a stretch but I think Martinez will mix up the strikes well enough to earn him a decision victory.
Smith vs. Petrino Anthony Smith, DEC Anthony Smith took some serious damage against Rountree and is getting up there as he's now 35 years old. I still think he has enough skill and experience to at least force a decision. Petrino relies on his left hook a lot and outside of that I don't see much variety in his striking. I think the striking will be even. If Smith is able to take Petrino to the ground, that would be huge as I know Smith is better on the ground.
Pereira vs. Potieria Michel Pereira, TKO, R1 Ihor has a kill or be killed mentality. That will hurt him in this fight. Pereira KO RD1.
Craig vs. Borralho Caio Borralho, DEC The striking of Borralho will be too much for Craig. Borralho has a good ground game too so I don't see him getting caught in any submissions (in my eyes, Paul Craigs only path to victory). Borralho will beat Craig up on the feet for 3 rounds.
Brito vs. Shore Joanderson Brito, SUB, R2 Round 1 will start slow as a feeling out process, couple minutes in we'll start to see some big shots. Brito will land and damage Shore. Round 2 he pushes the pace more, drops Shore or gets Shore looking for a takedown, and will attack a choke. Brito sub rd2.
Kowalkiewicz vs. Lucindo Karolina Kowalkiewicz, DEC No read. Karolina is hotter though.
Brener vs. Orolbai Myktybek Orolbai, DEC I'm a big fan of Elves but I don't think this is a good matchup. Orolbai has the better, more sound boxing and that will be huge for keeping his distance until he wants to shoot for takedowns and ride out the round.
Silva vs. Klose Joaquim Silva, TKO, R2 Another tough read. Silva coming off a solid win against Guida (wrestling background) and faces Drakkar Klose (wrestling background). According to Sean O Malley's coach, Tim Welch, Drakkar is massive when he isn't making weight, like 185-190lbs. That is a huge weight cut and that will always compromise someones chin. Silva will hunt for that check left hook and crack Drakkar. Silva nearly KOd Arman Tsarukyan in their fight. My only concern is Klose possibly securing takedowns early in the rounds.
Ruffy vs. Mullarkey Mauricio Ruffy, DEC Ruffy is a monster with all of his wins coming by KO. Mullarkey has a lot of UFC experience and I think he'll be able to do enough to avoid big shots and prevent getting KOd. We could see some level changes from Mullarkey but ultmately Ruffy will end up on top in those exhanges. Ruffy by decision.
Barbosa vs. Kareckaite Dione Barbosa, SUB, R1 Quick work. Barbosa is a submission specialist and Ernesta couldn't defend a takedown if she was told about it the day before. Barbosa SUB RD1.
Bonfim vs. Pichel Ismael Bonfim, TKO, R1 Ismael Bonfim is being set up to win this fight. Pichel is old as ****, but hasn't taken a ton of damage. That being said, Bonfim KO RD1.
Costa vs. Borjas Alessandro Costa, DEC This is my best read. Borjas will get some solid striking early but ultimately will start to gas as he has to keep working through Costa's clinch work and take downs. We saw in his last fight that when he gets tired, his footwork gets sloppy which will take away from his strength of ranged attacks. Costa will wrestle out a decision here.
